Thursday, November 29, 2007

A Disciplined and Organized Approach to Trading in the Stock Market

A Winning Approach to Trading in the Stock Market

Many traders lose simply out of ignorance. They base their trades on hunches, news, or tips from friends, and do not define specific risk and profit objectives before placing trades.

Others have the merit of educating themselves but fall victims of their emotions. They hold on to losing positions hoping they will turn into winners and sell winners by fear of losing a small gain. They overtrade to fulfill a need for action or by fear of missing out.

The consistent winners follow a winning approach:

- They have a strategy to enter and exit trades
- They use good money management
- They take consistent actions, they follow a trading plan
- They keep good records so they can review their actions
- They avoid overtrading
- They have a winning attitude
- Trading Framework was designed to help you build those crucial elements into your trading.

A strategy to enter and exit trades

You need to a strategy to put the odds in your favor for each trade you take. Your strategy should be as objective as possible and include the following elements:

- Entry: conditions required before you can enter a trade - may include technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or both.
- Initial stop loss: price at which you will close the entire position if it does not go in your favor. The risk per share is the difference between the entry price and the initial stop.
- Initial price objective: price at which you will take some or all profits if the trade goes in your favor.
- Trade management: set of rules that dictates your actions while a trade is opened. It may include trailing stops, closing position, etc…

For every action you take, the reason should be clearly described in your strategy.

Example: Buy pullback - stock in an uptrend on daily chart

- Entry Setup: Price above rising 30 day moving average with 3 or more consecutive days with lower highs
- Buy signal: $0.05 above the previous day’s high
- Initial stop Below lowest of previous and current day’s low
- Initial objective At the previous pivot high - sell half
- Trade management Move stop below previous day's low daily

A more complete strategy would include market and industries conditions, technical indicators, conditions from different timeframes, etc..

Money management rules to keep losses small

The goal of money management is to ensure your survival by avoiding risks that could take you out of business. Your money management rules should include the following:

- Maximum amount at risk for each trade. The different between your entry price and your initial stop loss is your risk per share. Your maximum amount at risk for each trade determines the share size.
- Maximum amount at risk for all your opened positions.
- Maximum daily and weekly amount lost before you stop trading – avoid trying to trade your way out of a hole after a loosing streaks.

Example:

Maximum amount at risk for each trade: $200
Maximum total amount at risk for all my opened positions: $800
I stop trading until the following day if my realized loss for that day is over $600
I stop trading until the following week if my realized loss for that week is over $1000

During your learning phase, your goal should be to survive, not to make money. Start with low limits and raise them as you become a consistent winner otherwise you will simply go broke faster.

Good record keeping

Although the process of gaining experience cannot be rushed, it can be made much more efficient by keeping good records of your actions. Good records will allow you to:

- Review your actions at the end of each day to make sure you followed you strategy, not your emotions.
- Learn from your losses – they cost you money, make sure you get the education in return.

You should also keep a journal of your observations.

A trading plan to keep emotions out of your decisions

During trading hours, emotions will turn smart people into idiots. Therefore you have to avoid having to make decisions during those hours. This requires a detailed trading plan that includes your strategy and your money management rules.

For every action you take during trading hours, the reason should not be greed or fear. The reason should be because it is in the plan. With a good plan, your task becomes one of patience and discipline.

You have to follow the plan without exception. Any valid reason for an exception - for example, correcting an oversight - should become part of the plan.

Overtrading

Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing. Not trading on those bad days is key to becoming a consistent winner – in some situations it is very tempting to overtrade:

- If you trade to fulfill a need for action, to relieve boredom
- If you can’t find the proper setup but can’t wait
- If you fear you are missing out on a great trade or on a great market
- If you want to make up for losses (revenge)
- If you trade to feel like you are working instead of sitting around. Trading involves a lot of work other than the actual buying and selling.

You should not trade under the following conditions

- You are not following my trading plan
- You have reached your daily or weekly maximum loss
- You are sick or very tired
- You are very emotional (upset, pressured to make money, self-esteem destroyed)
- You are using new tools you are not completely familiar with
- You need time to work on your trading plan

A winning attitude

Losing traders look for a “sure thing”, hang on hope, and avoid accepting small losses. Their trading is based on emotions. You must treat trading as a probability game in which you don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. All you need to know is that the odds are in your favor before you put a trade.

If you believe in your edge, which is you believe that the odds in your favor for each trade you enter, then you should have no expectation other than something will happen.

Your attitude will have a direct influence on your trading results:

- Take responsibility for all your actions – don’t blame the market or world events.

- Trade to trade well and for the love of trading, not to trade often and not for the money. The money will come as a result of trading well.

- Don’t be influenced by the opinions of others. Reach your own decisions and follow them.

- Be rigid with your rules and flexible in your expectations. Most traders are flexible with their rules and rigid in their expectations.

- Never think that taking money from the market is easy and never assume that you know enough.

- Have no particular expectation when you place a trade because you know that anything can happen.

- Don’t try to guess the future – trading is a game of probabilities.

- Use your head and stay calm – don’t get excited or depressed.

- Handle trading as a serious intellectual pursuit.

- Don’t count how much money you have made or lost while you are in a trade - focus on trading well.

Yves Mailhot
http://www.tradingframework.com
For A Disciplined and Organized Approach to Trading in the Stock Market

Original here

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Profitable Trading System

After you have found a profitable trading system that you already back-tested, how can you be sure that this system will produce the same gains in future.
Nobody can predict the future, your system can easily make losses in next years or can be no tradable.
There are some tests you must do before accepting a trading system, these tests swill show the robustness of your system and when passing these tests, it will be more likely to show gain in future.

Test 1 : Make sure that you put liquidity rule, that your entry and exit prices are realizable.

Test 2: Examine again your trading systems and your rules (This is very important).
I made dozen of trading systems that showed great results but after more examination, it showed that i cannot follow them in real life.
Check if there is one stock that made very big gain, the system will maybe become no profitable without this stock.

Test 3: Change twice or 3 times the date of begin for the simulation, if it still show good results then it has passed the test 3.

Test 4: Change values of some parameters or variables you have in your trading system rules, you must change one value and then back-test, change another and then back-test...
If the results are not affected very badly then it passed the test 4.

Test 5: Try to restrict the system from buying 20% or more of stocks you previously bought when doing the back-test. Then re-run the back-test. To pass this test, system must show pretty the same results as before.

Test 6: Equity chart must have a good look, check some statistic values like sharpe ratio, sortino ratio, standard deviation, maximum drawdown, average day for gains recovery...
It depends on the risk you are willing to take but choose only systems that have : higher sharpe ratio, higher sortino ratio, lower standard deviation, lower maximum drawdown...
Exclude systems that have very big max drawdown, standard deviation and average day for gains recovery.
The must important factor i think is average day for gains recovery.
Its the average number of day that you must wait until your equity value will goes back to the same level before the drawdown happen.
Big values will let you wait for long times before recovering gains and for sure many traders will abandon their trading system, and that's the worse thing that can happen to a trader because just after that, the system will show excellent results. (This always happen)

Theses tests are very restrictive and you will reject maybe all your trading systems, but when trading you will put your money, real money, so i think you must be very selective to make all chance in your side.

Original here

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

The Time Value of Money

Life is about decisions, whether they relate to your work, business or personal life. Often ignored is the interplay between all these areas, and the fact that a little interdisciplinary thinking can go a long way. This might sound obtuse, but many important decisions can be made easier by thinking simply, and a bit differently.

Before we do, a note about value, and 'utility'. Business is about creating value. Our personal lives (according to economists) are about maximizing our utility, where utility is simply a measure of the happiness or satisfaction gained from a good or service.

Think of it this way, and business is considered first. If shareholders (either owners or investors) could create more value themselves using other means, why bother running or investing in a business? Assuming we don't all have a perpetual income stream it comes back to this - if you don't create value in today's economy, you'll be forced to do one of two things. Change how you do things, or cease to exist. For business the value question is rather important.

People have it a little easier in some respects. Creating maximum utility is an incentive in and of itself. In the end, we all want more, whether it is revenue and growth for business, or old-fashioned utility in our personal lives.

To get more, we return to the decisions mentioned earlier, as all the decisions we make have a direct impact on both value creation and utility maximization, in particular those related to finance. Successful strategic management (the direction you want to take the business) is supported by your investment policy (choosing which projects to undertake) and your financing policy (how you fund everything). Linked to all of this is risk management, or how you handle the risks associated with these financial decisions.

Personally, financial decisions influence your quality of life, and your ability to enjoy the things you want. Once again we are back looking at the study of incentives - how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In this case, it's maximum utility.

One of the cornerstones of modern finance assists us in understanding which decisions to make, and it is equally applicable to business and personal finance. Its known as the time value of money. Simply put, $1 today is worth more to you than $1 received in the future. Why? Money has a time value because of interest rates, no matter how measly, making $1 today more valuable than $1 received at some time in the future because it can be invested today to provide a return. The income from the investment will in turn, make the dollar you get today worth more than the one promised you in the future. Perhaps an example best illustrates the point.

Anne is offered the choice between $100 now, and $100 in a year's time. She takes the cash now, and invests it in a security (or bank) yielding 8%, and in a year has $108, which is clearly more than if she deferred taking the money at the start.

Again, this comes back to the incentives mentioned earlier. Interest rates are paid because someone else can use your money now, and they are prepared to pay you a return for the privilege of doing so, which is in truth a premium for taking the risk of giving your money to someone else. With business, this concept is part of what is known as the Sharpe-Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM for short), allowing people to work out, in today's terms, the value of future cash flows on any project or decision requiring investment. Widely used, this concept varies in appearance and complexity, from sophisticated models developed by General Electric to the small business owner using the 'NPV' formula in an Excel spreadsheet.

There is another side to this discussion, and it's slightly more personal. The time value of money can apply to you, and specifically, your utility. To understand how, we need to look at things the other way around and get a handle on the incentives of everyone involved.

Think of large personal assets you might have, like a structured settlement. The agreements reached in setting up the settlement left you with a sense of security for the future and continuing, dependable payments over time. Comfortable. Hmm. Let's look at the incentives.

Think like they do. The illusion is that you will be better off down the track with the settlement. The problem is, they don't want you to have all your money now because they understand the time value of money. Its worth more to them, and they bank on the fact that you haven't given it a second thought.

Remember that structured settlements are designed so that the paying company get the maximum benefit from the time value of money. This doesn't happen by accident or through some amazing act of benevolence driven by concern about your long term well-being. It's pure market and negotiating power. Considering the time value of your settlement, the incentive is for them to keep your money as long as possible to maximize their value growth.

The intent of this discussion is to make you think. Consider the time value of money in your personal life. How much value is there for you in holding first-mortgage on a property for 20 years, compared with maximizing your utility? How much utility is your monthly settlement check going to provide you in 10 years? Just think about increases in the cost of living over the next fifteen years, and how the monthly check stands up.

Avenues exist in today's marketplace for you to better utilize these high-value assets like structured settlements and real estate notes. Naturally, decisions to do so should not be taken lightly, treating your largest assets as whimsically as an ATM card. Whether in business or in your personal life, always consult a diverse range of industry professionals to increase the amount of information and knowledge brought to bear on any decision. As mentioned at the start, risk management is an important part of any decision making process.

Remember the time value of money. It can be used both for and against you. And find out which way it is being used, just look to which party has the larger incentives.

Original here

Monday, November 26, 2007

Forex Course: A Quick Forex Guide for Traders

In this Forex course we will review some steps you need to take care before you venture into your trading journey. Most traders venture into the Forex market with little or no experience in the Forex market. This results in painful experiences like loosing most of the risk capital, frustration because it seemed so easy to make money, etc.

The first thing you need to realize is that, it is not easy to make money. As every other endeavor in life, where important rewards are to come after mastering it, you need to work hard. You need to get very well educated and experienced before having the possibility to receive important rewards on it. The key on mastering the Forex market relies on commitment, patience and discipline.

Ok, you have decided you are going to trade the Forex market, you have seen several advertisings featuring how easy is to make money in the Forex market. You might think this is your opportunity to reach your financial freedom, right away, time is money, why waiting any longer if you have the opportunity to make money now. I know, I’ve been there, but you have a chance now, I didn’t, no body told me what I am going to tell you.

We, Forex traders, make transactions based on a set of rules. These sets of rules are what we call a Trading System. Our systems tell us the exact time where we need to get in the market and out the market in order to make a profit (i.e. buy low sell high.)

Creating a system is the first big step you need to take care first. Why is this so important? Because you need to build a system that suits your personality, otherwise you are going to find hard to follow it, thus hard to profit from. A system can be based on technical indicators or what we called a mechanical system or based on experience and intuition or what we call discretionary systems. I highly recommend using and trying first a mechanical system, because discretionary systems are dangerous during the early stages of a Forex trader (can lead to indiscipline.) With experience, on later stages, you will find out which signals work better and which ones to avoid.

The next step in this Forex course is to try your system on a demo account. Most Forex brokers offer a demo account, an account with virtual money. This is an excellent choice to test your trading system as there is no money at risk. In this step you will figure out if the strategy works for you. If you feel comfortable trading it, then it is most likely to produce good results. How much time should you stay in this step? It varies, but you shouldn’t go one step further until your system gets consistent profitable results over a period of time. It can take many months, but remember, you need to be patient.

You must be honest to yourself; you need to take every single signal generated by your system, not only the signals you thought were going to work, otherwise, you are going to have problems in the next two steps.

Ok, by know you had consistent profitable results on your demo account. You might think its time to go full. Nope, nope, nope. There is a big difference between trading a demo and a real account. The most important difference lies on emotions (fear, greed, anger, etc.) These are psychological barriers that affect every single decision made by traders regardless of what he/she is trading (stocks, bonds, Forex, futures, grains, etc.) These emotional factors, in my opinion, are the most determinant factor that separates profitable traders from the others.

The next step in this Forex course is specially designed to deal with emotions and to confirm the results obtained in the prior step (consistent results in a demo account.) At this step you need to trade in a real account with limited funds. Some brokers offer fractional lot trading. Meaning you are able to trade any desired amount (even cents.) The important thing here is that these emotions we’ve been talking about are present only when there is real money at risk. At this stage, you are going to see if you are really comfortable trading your system and if you are able to trade with such system, remember different systems produce different emotions. If you are able to produce similar results than those obtained in a demo account, then ready for the next step. If you didn’t, then you might need to create another system, there is chance your system never fit you. If you created consistent profitable results on this stage, you have a chance to produce similar results in the next one, on the other hand, if you didn’t produce good results in this stage, you will not be able to make on the next stage. Remember, you need to do things right, and be honest to yourself.

The last stage is trading in a real account with sufficient funds. If you are at this stage, and have passed successfully every prior stage, then you have a chance to make it, go ahead and try it, you need to be confident in yourself and in your system, your strategy have already produced consistent profitable results, there are reasons to believe you are going to make it. Very few traders fail at this stage (if passed successfully prior stages.)

Trading successfully is no easy task, it requires a lot of work, patience, discipline, and education. By completing the steps outlined in this Forex course, you have a chance to produce profitable results. I repeat it again, you need to be honest to yourself about the results obtained in every stage. Some times you might need expert guidance regarding your system development strategies.

Original here

Sunday, November 25, 2007

A New Wall Street Line Dance: Performance

It matters not what lines, numbers, indices, or gurus you worship, you just can't know where the stock market is going or when it will change direction. Too much investor time and analytical effort is wasted trying to predict course corrections… even more is squandered comparing portfolio Market Values with a handful of unrelated indices and averages. If we reconcile in our minds that we can’t predict the future (or change the past), we can move through the uncertainty more productively. Let's simplify portfolio performance evaluation by using information that we don’t have to speculate about, and which is related to our own personal investment programs.

Every December, with visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads, investors begin to scrutinize their performance, formulate coulda’s and shoulda’s, and determine what to try next year. It’s an annual, masochistic, rite of passage. My year-end vision is different. I see a bunch of Wall Street fat cats, ROTF and LOL, while investors (and their alphabetically correct advisors) determine what to change, sell, buy, re-allocate, or adjust to make the next twelve months behave better financially than the last. What happened to that old fashioned emphasis on long-term progress toward specific goals? The use of Issue Breadth and 52-week High/Low statistics for navigation; and cyclical analysis (Peak to Peak, etc.) and economic realities as performance expectation barometers makes a lot more personal sense. And when did it become vogue to think of Investment Portfolios as sprinters in a twelve-month race with a nebulous array of indices and averages? Why are the masters of the universe rolling on the floor in laughter? They can visualize your annual performance agitation ritual producing fee generating transactions in all conceivable directions. An unhappy investor is Wall Street’s best friend, and by emphasizing short-term results and creating a superbowlesque environment, they guarantee that the vast majority of investors will be unhappy about something, all of the time.

Your portfolio should be as unique as you are, and I contend that a portfolio of individual securities rather than a shopping cart full of one-size-fits-all consumer products is much easier to understand and to manage. You just need to focus on two longer-range objectives: (1) growing productive Working Capital, and (2) increasing Base Income. Neither objective is directly related to the market averages, interest rate movements, or the calendar year. Thus, they protect investors from short-term, anxiety causing, events or trends while facilitating objective based performance analysis that is less frantic, less competitive, and more constructive than conventional methods. Briefly, Working Capital is the total cost basis of the securities and cash in the portfolio, and Base Income is the dividends and interest the portfolio produces. Deposits and withdrawals, capital gains and losses, each directly impact the Working Capital number, and indirectly affect Base Income growth. Securities become non-productive when they fall below Investment Grade Quality (fundamentals only, please) and/or no longer produce income. Good sense management can minimize these unpleasant experiences.

Let’s develop an "all you need to know" chart that will help you manage your way to investment success (goal achievement) in a low failure rate, unemotional, environment. The chart will have four data lines, and your portfolio management objective will be to keep three of them moving upward through time. Note that a separate record of deposits and withdrawals should be maintained. If you are paying fees or commissions separately from your transactions, consider them withdrawals of Working Capital. If you don’t have specific selection criteria and profit taking guidelines, develop them.

Line One is labeled “Working Capital”, and an average annual growth rate between 5% and 12% would be a reasonable target, depending on Asset Allocation. [An average cannot be determined until after the end of the second year, and a longer period is recommended to allow for compounding.] This upward only line (Did you raise an eyebrow?) is increased by dividends, interest, deposits, and “realized” capital gains and decreased by withdrawals and “realized” capital losses. A new look at some widely accepted year-end behaviors might be helpful at this point. Offsetting capital gains with losses on good quality companies becomes suspect because it always results in a larger deduction from Working Capital than the tax payment itself. Similarly, avoiding securities that pay dividends is at about the same level of absurdity as marching into your boss’s office and demanding a pay cut. There are two basic truths at the bottom of this: (1) You just can’t make too much money, and (2) there’s no such thing as a bad profit. Don’t pay anyone who recommends loss taking on high quality securities. Tell them that you are helping to reduce their tax burden.

Line Two reflects "Base Income", and it too will always move upward if you are managing your Asset Allocation properly. The only exception would be a 100% Equity Allocation, where the emphasis is on a more variable source of Base Income… the dividends on a constantly changing stock portfolio. Line Three reflects historical trading results and is labeled “Net Realized Capital Gains”. This total is most important during the early years of portfolio building and it will directly reflect both the security selection criteria you use, and the profit taking rules you employ. If you build a portfolio of Investment Grade securities, and apply a 5% diversification rule (always use cost basis), you will rarely have a downturn in this monitor of both your selection criteria and your profit taking discipline. Any profit is always better than any loss and, unless your selection criteria is really too conservative, there will always be something out there worth buying with the proceeds. Three 8% singles will produce a larger number than one 25% home run, and which is easier to obtain? Obviously, the growth in Line Three should accelerate in rising markets (measured by issue breadth numbers). The Base Income just keeps growing because Asset Allocation is also based on the cost basis of each security class! [Note that an unrealized gain or loss is as meaningless as the quarter-to-quarter movement of a market index. This is a decision model, and good decisions should produce net realized income.]

One other important detail No matter how conservative your selection criteria, a security or two is bound to become a loser. Don’t judge this by Wall Street popularity indicators, tea leaves, or analyst opinions. Let the fundamentals (profits, S & P rating, dividend action, etc) send up the red flags. Market Value just can’t be trusted for a bite-the-bullet decision… but it can help. This brings us to Line Four, a reflection of the change in "Total Portfolio Market Value" over the course of time. This line will follow an erratic path, constantly staying below "Working Capital" (Line One). If you observe the chart after a market cycle or two, you will see that lines One through Three move steadily upward regardless of what line Four is doing! BUT, you will also notice that the "lows" of Line Four begin to occur above earlier highs. It’s a nice feeling since Market Value movements are not, themselves, controllable.

Line Four will rarely be above Line One, but when it begins to close the cap, a greater movement upward in Line Three (Net Realized Capital Gains) should be expected. In 100% income portfolios, it is possible for Market Value to exceed Working Capital by a slight margin, but it is more likely that you have allowed some greed into the portfolio and that profit taking opportunities are being ignored. Don’t ever let this happen. Studies show rather clearly that the vast majority of unrealized gains are brought to the Schedule D as realized losses… and this includes potential profits on income securities. And, when your portfolio hits a new high watermark, look around for a security that has fallen from grace with the S & P rating system and bite that bullet.

What’s different about this approach, and why isn’t it more high tech? There is no mention of an index, an average, or a comparison with anything at all, and that’s the way it should be. This method of looking at things will get you where you want to be without the hype that Wall Street uses to create unproductive transactions, foolish speculations, and incurable dissatisfaction. It provides a valid use for portfolio Market Value, but far from the judgmental nature Wall Street would like. It’s use in this model, as both an expectation clarifier and an action indicator for the portfolio manager, on a personal level, should illuminate your light bulb. Most investors will focus on Line Four out of habit, or because they have been brainwashed by Wall Street into thinking that a lower Market Value is always bad and a higher one always good. You need to get outside of the “Market Value vs. Anything” box if you hope to achieve your goals. Cycles rarely fit the January to December mold, and are only visible in rear view mirrors anyway… but their impact on your new Line Dance is totally your tune to name.

The Market Value Line is a valuable tool. If it rises above working capital, you are missing profit opportunities. If it falls, start looking for buying opportunities. If Base Income falls, so has: (1) the quality of your holdings, or (2) you have changed your asset allocation for some (possibly inappropriate) reason, etc. So Virginia, it really is OK if your Market Value falls in a weak stock market or in the face of higher interest rates. The important thing is to understand why it happened. If it’s a surprise, then you don't really understand what is in your portfolio. You will also have to find a better way to gauge what is going on in the market. Neither the CNBC "talking heads" nor the "popular averages" are the answer. The best method of all is to track "Market Stats", i.e. Breadth Statistics, New Highs and New Lows. . If you need a "drug", this is a better one than the ones you've grown up with.

Change is good!

Original here

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Investments and How to Find Them

There are risks involved in all investing. The skill of investing is knowing which risks are worth taking, and which should be avoided. Finding and knowing which risks to take is the essence of good investing and the whole reason that investments can pay such a high reward. It cannot be done without careful research and analysis. You must give yourself every chance to make the right decision. Investing without carrying out sufficient research is like playing roulette. You are giving yourself virtually no chance of covering your investments and avoiding disaster.

There are certain steps you will have to take in order to give yourself a fighting chance of being a successful investor. If you are considering investing in company shares on the stock market, then you should be aware that all publicly traded companies must provide investors and potential investors with access to company financial data. This data is generally available from the company so if you are considering buying into a company, then get access to this information and satisfy yourself that the company is in a good financial state before parting with any money.

Be Aware

If you do research a company, and are taking a look at its financial position, then you should look back two to three years into the past. You probably don’t need to go back further than this but if you go back less, there may be important trends in the finances that you will miss. Take special note of the quarterly statements and the revenue and earnings per share.

You should be trying to identify trends in certain figures. While these are no guarantee of what might happen In the future it is undeniable that an upward trend in revenue and profits will be a positive sign to look out for.

Once you have satisfied yourself with the basic financials of the company and that the prospects of making good profits into the future are favourable you will be in a position to consider putting money into the share. There is an ongoing debate over whether it’s preferable to buy shares that will increase in value, or shares that pay good dividends and the answer to this question must always lie with the individual investor. What must be remembered however is that there is little point in chasing dividends. This refers to the practice of buying a share just before a dividend is expected to be announced. The price of the share will already have taken the dividend into account so you will be paying for it in any case.

Original here

Creating Wealth In Stock Market

The 12 Rules of How to Avoid Losing and Start Making Money from the Stock Market

RULE 1: WHY DO YOU INVEST?

Make more money, this is the answer to most people.
If your reason is to make more money, then ask yourself these three questions:

1.Is your strategy making money?
2.Is your strategy safe?
3.How to increase the profit and minimize the risk?

RULE 2: HOW TO CREATE WEALTH IN STOCK MARKET WITH JUST $1,000

Let say we invest some lower price stocks with just $1,000 in the stock market, invest twice a year for short-to-medium term. If each time the return is double, you will make one million dollar cash within 5 years. If your starting capital is $20,000, after 3 years you will make one million dollar cash.

If you are using the same $1,000 capital, invest twice a year, but the return is only 50%, you will make one million dollar cash after 9 years.

So we can always start small. However, it is very important that we know how to select high profit and low risk stocks.

RULE 3: DON'T GET OBSESSED WITH STOCKS

Sitting and monitoring the market whole day long will not bring you profit. Instead, it increases pressure and misleads your judgment.

RULE 4: NEVER GAMBLE

95% of the people always buy at the highest price. They don’t really know when to buy, just relying on news, rumors and tips. Only 5% of the people knows how to trade at the lowest price. That’s why 95% are losing money, only the 5% are making money.
Investment Builds Wealth, Gambling Definitely Lose !

RULE 5: SAY GOODBYE TO NEWS

News used to be able to predict the market trend. But not anymore, it is difficult to judge which news could actually influence the market nowadays.

RULE 6: DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS, FORGET ABOUT TIPS

Before investing, ask yourself these four questions:

1.How many people have already heard about the tips before you?
If many have heard about it before you, this news is already obsolete. The price is already high.

2.How long have the tips been spreading before it reaches you?
The next day?

3.Who told you?
Listed company director? Or friends?

4.Assuming that the tip is true, would you possibly know about it?
Normally insider news is not disclosed.

RULE 7: SELL YOUR STOCKS EVEN LOSING MONEY

It is easier to be said than done.

Sell at a loss is a difficult decision. Your heart will object, and your feeling will say "It is going to rebound, don't sell." Eventually price dropped further, causing a much tragic lost.

RULE 8: DON'T JUST FOCUS ON MAKING MONEY

How to protect your capital is much more important. Don’t try to make 100% profit. It is already good enough to have a 60% profit margin.

RULE 9: HISTORY WILL NOT ALWAYS REPEAT

Everyone expects to make some money from the stock market before Christmas, New Year, annual budget announcement or election, but the stock market is not always bullish during these events. We can say history is not always repeated.
The best way is “Let the Market Lead us”.

RULE 10: QUOTES FROM WARREN BUFFET

There are only two rules to make money in stock market:

The first rule: Never lose your money.
The second rule: Never forget the first rule.

RULE 11: TURN BAD STOCKS INTO GOOD STOCKS, DON’T JUST HOLD YOUR STOCKS

Don’t hold your stock too long, there is a value when stocks are sold.

How long have you been holding your stocks until now?
Since Year 1993? 1997? Or Year 2000?

Why didn't you exercise your stocks? Long term investment strategy is not practical anymore. Even the blue chips also crash when the market collapses.

The best strategy is to sell the stocks that are not earning money, and reselect some good counters. Buy low, sell high for several times will earn you more than enough to compensate the lost.

RULE 12: WAKE UP FROM MISTAKES

Stop investing if you are not sure of when to buy or sell.

Without the knowledge of investment, you are bound to lose again. This is an age of information. Investors are using knowledge, techniques and strategies to make money. Without investment knowledge, how do you protect your money?

Building wealth through investing starts with securing your capital.


Author: Dr. Steven Lee (Ph.D) is the creator of “Power System” and also the author of two books on how to invest in stock market. There is "Creating Wealth in Stock Market" and "The Magic Idea of Getting Rich". Free e-book "Money Fish"
Your New Way to Become a Millionaire
Website: http://www.DrStevenLee.com

Original here

Friday, November 23, 2007

How To Make a Fortune in Investments

People work and save a part of their salaries. They try to make more money out of their savings. Some of them try to achieve more: They want make a fortune and change their life. How can you make a fortune out of your money?

With a New Business Idea

The most promising way is to develop a new business idea. Young scientists or professionals detect a problem. They do a lot of research in order to find a solution. They develop a new product or service. If they are lucky, they meet a demand on the market. They bring their innovation to the market. This is a long way that can last years. Entrepreneurs as innovators need all their savings in order to realize their business idea. They have to spend hundreds of thousands of Dollars from their savings. They even need to acquire more investment funds from other people.

By Funding of a New Business Idea

Not everyone is able to develop something new that is promising for making a fortune. They can finance others, if they feel confident in their marketing strategy and their dedication to work. Some of this people are acquinted with pioneering entrepreneurs. They act as so called “family, friends, fools” network. They invest in the hope to get their money back. They can benefit great, if they are lucky.

As Professional Venture Capitalists

Some people can use their assets in order to work as professional venture capitalists. Some of them have experience in building up of a new business. They act as business angels and provide young entrepreneurs with both: investment capital as well as advice. They usually maintain a good network to universities, research centres and startup contact centres. They try to choose among the best ventures. A lot of skills and the ability to risk own funds are needed to do this job.

By Trading from Home

People with experience in the financial markets can trade on the stock and options markets from home. There are a lot of opportunities and software programs for day trading on stock markets and for investments in futures and options. This is a highly risky business.

For People Who Prefer Resting on a Safe Pillow

Most of the people want to sleep well on a safe pillow. They have family duties and they may not risk their savings. They are well off by investing in their own home as real estate. They further invest some remaining savings in a basket of bonds and shares of high quality and a small portion in private equity funds. They do not get rich, but they can prepare for their old days or needed extra expenses.

You May Draw a Comparison:

It’s possible to multiply the invested capital ten or hundred times or more as business innovator, business angel or venture capitalist. Otherwise all the funds can be lost in a venture. A professional trader who invests from his computer from home on the financial markets can make or lose a lot of money. This people do this kind of job usually only during a few years, because it is highly hectic. They withdraw from trading because they either have lost all their money or because they are saturated. The cautious investor who prefers a quiet life achieves a yearly performance of 3% to 6% a year for bonds, of 5 % to 10% for shares. If a young person of 25 years reinvests the yearly revenues of a start capital of $10,000, she or he can accumulate a fortune of $43,219 in the age of 55 just with bonds of 5% interest yearly.

Original here

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Asset Management 101

Asset management is the method that a company uses to track fixed assets. It is the process of controlling assets throughout their lifecycle - from procurement, through daily operations, and finally disposal. Factory equipment, desks, chairs, computers, and property are some examples of such assets. Broadly speaking, asset management involves tracking the physical location of assets, managing demand for scarce resources, and accounting tasks such as amortization. Issues that are part of asset management include asset value and depreciation; purchasing requests, orders, and asset receipts; licenses,
leases, maintenance, and other contracts; vendor performance, service levels, and warranties; departmental and user data; and physical asset attributes. One of the purposes of going all these lengths and putting in effort to organize all this information is to keep track of important information such as how much the asset costs, whom it was purchased from, who is using it, where it is physically located, which department code the cost should be assigned to, which vendor should be called for support, when the lease expires, when it should be retired, what the depreciation rate is, etc. This, in turn, provides the basis for managing and optimizing an organization’s entire asset portfolio.

When we speak of property management as part of asset management, it includes property selection, implementation of policies and performance standards for that property, and monitoring of its performance in relation to the owner’s objectives.

Generally, there are four broad stages of the asset lifecycle:
Planning and procurement: This involves planning, ordering, and receiving the technology.
Operations: This includes managing the day-to-day operations of the assets to maximize productivity.
Financial management: It involves ensuring accurate tax, depreciation, and other costs.
Disposal: Once it is time for disposal, you are required to remove the asset from the enterprise in compliance with environmental regulations.

Various tools are available for asset management. However, it is important to realize that asset management is primarily a process, and the tools aspect is just a small aspect of it. Since every organization is unique, with its own unique needs and strategies, the ideal asset management process for each organization differs.

Original here

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

If you start your own home business what sort of business would you choose

My personal opinion about home business is to create multiple home income streams.
This is essential to make your homebusinesses to a success.
Big question is what sort of businesses would you choose. If you choose to create several businesses for multiple income streams and you don’t have a lot of time to manage it, but still you want to manage it well and have ofcourse maximum results
Its important you choose your businesses carefully

Another important fact is that if you choose to start multiple home businesses, at that point it isn’t your main/extra source of income. It always take a little time to make your businesses known at the general public. This means it is impossible to work fulltime with your home business and have a full/good extra income, the first day you start.

That’s why, I think its important to choose for businesses where you don’t depend on others, or sales that you have to make if time is your biggest problem. The best is a business that makes money the first day you start ,furthermore set up and learn your business it may take some time, but that’s not relevant or doesn’t matter, because once you know your businesses its important it don’t take more than 3 maybe 4 hrs per week. If it turn out that it takes a lot more of your time, well then it isn’t the right business we are looking for.

Now we know what we want, and sure know what we don’t want. Remains the question what type of home businesses, is the business we are looking for.

First of all lets take a look at some traditional home businesses, and why these in my opinion not the right businesses to choose. One of these traditionals are the Affiliate programs, mlm and typist and ad typist jobs.
To make some money with mlm or affiliate programs you have to built a downline to make some money, this cost a lot of time energy and efford. It is almost impossible to built as a individual a downline through classified ads safelist or other ways of in efficient advertising. Statistically it is proven that a small percentage is making money from affiliate or mlm. Then there is the home typist or ad typist "jobs" , these are questionable business. You have to pay a fee to sign up with any of these programs, then you spend hours a day, day after day, typing ads all over the internet for very little pay. In fact you only get paid if someone signs up through your typed ad.

I think there are two type of businesses where you can start making money right away. Both businesses needs some little education but once you are familiar, it takes only 3 to 4 hrs per week of your time. The first one is e-currency exchanging
“DXIO is an impressive system that, among other upcoming new modules, incorporates a profitable portfolio module and a electronic currency exchanging module. If you put money into the portfolio module, it can compound daily giving you a better weekly gain than your bank offers all year. There are fees involved, but with some diligent work, you can make excellent returns. If you operate the exchanging module, you can earn nice fat commissions when you exchange one e-currency with another for other people or businesses.” (from the site above all systems.)
The second home business is FOREX trading. In FOREX you can make profit in both ways buying and selling. In forex you have the choice to choose how much time you want to spend on trading per week. If you have a good system/strategy trading the forexmarket, is even for a beginner with no knowledge accessible. Ofcourse you have to do a little research for both businesses, but thats normal for every thing what is new.

Original here

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

There are real, live people behind currency trading

The Internet offers an abundance of information about investing, currency trading, forex market, about how, when and what to do to earn more money in the easiest way possible. The “information highway” is practically a gold mine for traders that have a lot of experience and for beginners that need articles, tips and glossaries to get ahead. So much to see and so much to do…One should be worried that all these people (that are looking for information and for knowledge or are offering it) forget that behind the computers there are hearts beating and brains thinking, and blood pulsing through veins.

The useful information that is found on the Internet about foreign exchange, charts, capital risks, currencies, brokerage, and transactions isn’t just a virtual world separated from reality. It is other people’s experience, thoughts and feelings. The articles written about this subject represent their time and effort to supply novelty, to help, to guide their fellow readers. And those to whom they address their knowledge are people too. The Internet is actually people’s humanity, their strive to contribute, even a little to man kind.

Currency trading isn’t impossible to learn as one might imagine when encountering problems. Trading difficulties aren’t a reason not to invest anymore. These procedures and words were invented by people (who have weaknesses, who are sometimes foolish, sometimes too ambitious or who want to take advantage of your own faults), but for the people also. And, because you, the reader, are here to use their information you are proving yourself to be human. You should now endeavor to understand what others have so much worked to teach. Yes, you might stumble upon different terms that place you in a difficult situation: Wash trade, Whipsaw, vostro Accounts and abbreviations like: EDI, ECU, EMS, EFT, G7 or G10. But you will also find the answers to all of your questions from the same people that use these terms.

Currency trading speaks about money and finance and business, so about people and their wishes of great wealth. Trading in general talks about human psychology — something that should be taken into consideration usually. The risk that exists in trading has a direct effect on the trader. Therefore bad transactions are made because of hesitation, fear of making a choice that might lead to loss of money and lack of faith. The advice: “trade only as much as you can afford to lose” was given just because of these reasons. Currency trading has less to do with psychology than other trading systems, but it still reefers to people and the way they think.

So human weaknesses can be taken advantage of (you can profit from someone else or someone else will profit because of you). The good aspect of currency trading is that buying and selling currencies is safer than other risky markets because the psychological factor weights less here. But, if you want to make sure that you are in control of the situation, don’t forget you are human! Read articles and lose the weaknesses!

There are hundreds of interesting titles on the net: “Currency Trading, Advantages and Disadvantages”, “Online Currency Trading is a reality”, “Learn Currency Trading, Forex Strategies, Forex Software, Forex Investment”, “Make your own story of currency trading success”, “Risks in Currency Trading”, “Trading currencies is easy for everyone”…. There is so much free information about any aspect of the investment world that if you ever lose money because of lack of knowledge you won’t have any excuse. Learn from what you read and “knowledge will set you free” (in this case make you rich!) Don’t even think for a minute that you are wasting your time reading because you are actually investing right now.

If you don’t know where to start (you should click here for some tips and articles) think of the keywords that are mostly used for the foreign exchange market: “Currency trading” and “Forex trading” and use these terms together with the word “article” in the Google search engine. Google will display 222,000 and 608,000 links to sites that have categories or articles referring to this topic. You can enjoy your readings thinking they will actually be useful.

Don’t forget you are human and you need discipline, planning, management and information to get rich. You are behind Currency trading and you need to know how things and other people work before making any investment. If risk is not your business than wisdom should let you know that no one can guarantee 100% earnings without any loss. You are the one investing your money so you should first learn to do this and then be prepared for anything. Investment winnings are just as unpredictable as people are.

Original here

Dont just surrender your endowment savings value !

Due to the high cost of charges by life assurance companies for early surrendered with-profits endowment policies there exists a market for second hand with-profits endowment policies in which brokers find best deals from purchasing market makers.

Those that hold endowment policies have the option to trade policies in before the end of the contract as required by circumstance. Policy holders are able to get improved offers for the policy they hold via competitive bids from the TEP brokers.

Via a broker, TEP Market Makers will assess the value of your endowment and make an offer based on your policy. If you decide to sell, the market maker then takes on the monthly payments until the policy matures or they resell to another individual on the open market.

People who are changing their mortgage, going through divorce, need more capital or who predict a fall in the profit of their endowment may have a requirement to sell they're existing with-profits endowment or life assurance policies.

Traded Endowment Policies or TEPs are second hand with-profits endowment policies legally assigned to new owners who pay the purchase price and take over the payment of future premiums. The life assurance cover remains on the original life/lives assured, but all policy benefits on maturity or, an earlier life assurance payout, are the property of the new owner.

As TEPs are purchased mid-term the policy already has a guaranteed value made up of the 'Basic Sum Assured' and 'Bonuses Attaching' and the initial charges have all been paid by the original policyholder.

Original here

Monday, November 19, 2007

Forex Trading Education: Things You Should Know About Forex Trading

How difficult is it to make money trading the Forex market? How much time does it take to actually be able to make a living trading the Forex market? These and other important aspects of trading are to be discussed in this article.

Trading the Forex market has many benefits over other financial markets, among the most important are: superior liquidity, 24hrs market, better execution, and others. Traders and investor see the Forex market as a new speculation or diversifying opportunity because of these benefits. Does this mean that it is easy to make money trading the Forex Market? Not at all.

Forex brokers agree that 90% of traders end up losing money, 5% of traders end up at break even and only 5% of them achieve consistent profitable results. With these statistics shown, I don’t consider trading to be an easy task. But, is it harder to master any other endeavor? I don’t think so, consider musicians, writers, or even other businesses, the success rates are about the same, there are a whole bunch of them who never got to the top.

Now that we know it is not easy to achieve consistent profitable results, a must question would be, Why is it that some traders succeed while others fail to trade successfully in the Forex market? There is no hard answer to this question, or a recipe to follow to achieve consistent profitable results. What we do know is that traders that reach the top think different. That’s right, they don’t follow the crowd, they are an independent part of the crowd.

A few things that separate the top traders from the rest are:

Education: They are very well educated in the matter; they have chosen to learn every single and important aspect of trading. The best traders know that every trade is a learning experience. They approach the Forex market with humility, otherwise the market will prove them wrong.

Forex trading system: Top traders have a Forex trading system. They have the discipline to follow it rigorously, because they know that only the trades that are signaled by their system have a greater rate of success.

Price behavior: They have incorporated price behavior into their trading systems. They know price action has the last word.

Money management: Avoiding the risk of ruin is a primary subject to the best traders. After all, you cannot succeed without funds in your trading account.

Trading psychology: They are aware of every psychological issue that affects the decisions made by traders. They have accepted the fact that every individual trade has two probable outcomes, not just the winning side.

These are, among others, the most important factors that influence the success rate of Forex traders.

We know now that it is not easy to make money trading the Forex market, but it is possible. We also discussed the most important factors that influence the rate of success of Forex traders. But, how much time does it take to have consistent profitable results? It is different from trader to trader. For some, it could take a life time, and still don’t get the desired results, for some others, a few years are enough to get consistent profitable results. The answer to this question may vary, but what I want to make clear here is that trading successfully is a process, it’s not something you can do in a short period of time.

Trading successfully is no easy task; it is a process and could take years to achieve the desired results. There are a few things though every trader should take in consideration that could accelerate the process: having a trading system, using money management, education, being aware of psychological issues, discipline to follow your trading system and your trading plan, and others.

Original here

The Time Is Right For Bethesda Real Estate

Well it is a truth that there has been some concern over the state of affairs in the national real estate market. Previous years saw growth and appreciation the like of which had never been seen before. Now people are asking; "Has the bottom completely fallen out of the market?" This is a bit of an odd question as there will always be a need for homes and people who want to buy them. So, no; the bottom has not fallen out of the market. What we are experiencing is more of a market correction. It merely looks like things have collapsed in comparison to the market of the past years. In fact this is a great time to be looking for a home as the national market is currently swinging in favor of buyers.

People that have considered a move to Maryland should be looking at this next few months as the time to find the perfect home in the Bethesda area. This is a highly desirable area as it boasts excellent access to the nation's capital with is a major center of employment for this area. The Capital Region is the control center of this country and there are numerous agencies, organizations, government branches, international companies and businesses in this area that provide an excellent employment atmosphere. Work is plentiful in this area as there is a real demand for quality and educated individuals. This area is also home to some great educational facilities with Johns Hopkins, The University Of Maryland, College Park and Washington College in close proximity. There are also a number of private college preparatory schools located in Bethesda including Holton Arms, Georgetown Prep and Stone Ridge.

Bethesda itself is a culturally rich area that is renowned for it's excellent selection of restaurants. In addition it has gained notoriety for spectacular homes and properties. With great schools and culture, Bethesda has truly become one of the premier spots to live in the Capital Region. This is really a great time to be looking for a home in this area as the market is prepared for an influx of new buyers. Home values are sure to be a major motivating factor for this area as the Capital area is always going to be a major center for both living and working. Come and explore this beautiful area and see what it has to offer you!

Original here

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Understanding the Basics of Currency Trading

Investors and traders around the world are looking to the Forex market as a new speculation opportunity. But, how are transactions conducted in the Forex market? Or, what are the basics of Forex Trading? Before adventuring in the Forex market we need to make sure we understand the basics, otherwise we will find ourselves lost where we less expected. This is what this article is aimed to, to understand the basics of currency trading.

What is traded in the Forex market?

The instrument traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs. A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another. The most traded currency pairs are:

EUR/USD: Euro

GBP/USD: Pound

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar

USD/JPY: Yen

USD/CHF: Swiss franc

AUD/USD: Aussie

These currency pairs generate up to 85% of the overall volume generated in the Forex market.

So, for instance, if a trader goes long or buys the Euro, she or he is simultaneously buying the EUR and selling the USD. If the same trader goes short or sells the Aussie, she or he is simultaneously selling the AUD and buying the USD.

The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency.
Each currency pair is expressed in units of the counter currency needed to get one unit of the base currency.
If the price or quote of the EUR/USD is 1.2545, it means that 1.2545 US dollars are needed to get one EUR.

Bid/Ask Spread

All currency pairs are commonly quoted with a bid and ask price. The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at, thus the trader should sell at this price. The ask is the price your broker is willing to sell at, thus the trader should buy at this price.

EUR/USD 1.2545/48 or 1.2545/8

The bid price is 1.2545

The ask price is 1.2548

A Pip

A pip is the minimum incremental move a currency pair can make. A pip stands for price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2560 equals 15 pips. And a move in the USD/JPY from 112.05 to 113.10 equals 105 pips.

Margin Trading (leverage)

In contrast with other financial markets where you require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.

The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.) Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a position.

The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.

For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is using 100:1 leverage.

To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.

Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance. If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker. This takes us to our next important term.

Margin Call

A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades, leaving the trader “theoretically” with the maintenance margin.

Most of the time margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.

How are the mechanics of a Forex trade?

The trader, after an extensive analysis, decides there is a higher probability of the British pound to go up. He or she decides to go long risking 30 pips and having a target (reward) of 60 pips. If the market goes against our trader he/she will lose 30 pips, on the other hand, if the market goes in the intended way, he or she will gain 60 pips. The actual quote for the pound is 1.8524/27, 4 pips spread. Our trader gets long at 1.8530 (ask). By the time the market gets to either our target (called take profit order) or our risk point (called stop loss level) we will have to sell it at the bid price (the price our broker is willing to buy our position back.) In order to make 40 pips, our take profit level should be placed at 1.8590 (bid price.) If our target gets hit, the market ran 64 pips (60 pips plus the 4 pip spread.) If our stop loss level is hit, the market ran 30 pips against us.

It’s very important to understand every aspect of trading. Start first from the very basic concepts, then move on to more complex issues such as Forex trading systems, trading psychology, trade and risk management, and so on. And make sure you master every single aspect before adventuring in a live trading account.

Original here

Learn Currency Trade - Intro to The FOREX Market.

The Foreign Exchange Market – better known as FOREX - is a world wide market for buying and selling currencies.

It handles a huge volume of transactions 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Daily exchanges are worth approximately $1.5 trillion (US dollars). In comparison, the United States Treasury Bond market averages $300 billion a day and American stock markets exchange about $100 billion a day.

The Foreign Exchange Market was established in 1971 with the abolishment of fixed currency exchanges. Currencies became valued at 'floating' rates determined by supply and demand. The FOREX grew steadily throughout the 1970's, but with the technological advances of the 80's FOREX grew from trading levels of $70 billion a day to the current level of $1.5 trillion.

The FOREX is made up of about 5000 trading institutions such as international banks, central government banks (such as the US Federal Reserve), and commercial companies and brokers for all types of foreign currency exchange.

There is no centralized location of FOREX – major trading centers are located in New York, Tokyo, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, and Frankfurt, and all trading is by telephone or over the Internet. Businesses use the market to buy and sell products in other countries, but most of the activity on the FOREX is from currency traders who use it to generate profits from small movements in the market.

Even though there are many huge players in FOREX, it is accessible to the small investor thanks to recent changes in the regulations. Previously, there was a minimum transaction size and traders were required to meet strict financial requirements. With the advent of Internet trading, regulations have been changed to allow large interbank units to be broken down into smaller lots.

Each lot is worth about $100,000 and is accessible to the individual investor through 'leverage' – loans extended for trading. Typically, lots can be controlled with a leverage of 100:1 meaning that US$1,000 will allow you to control a $100,000 currency exchange.

There are many advantages to trading in FOREX, including:

- Liquidity: Because of the size of the Foreign Exchange Market, investments are extremely liquid. International banks are continuously providing bid and ask offers and the high number of transactions each day means there is always a buyer or a seller for any currency.

- Accessibility: The market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. The market opens Monday morning Australian time and closes Friday afternoon New York time. Trades can be done on the Internet from your home or office.

- Open Market: Currency fluctuations are usually caused by changes in national economies. News about these changes is accessible to everyone at the same time – there can be no 'insider trading' in FOREX.

- No commission Fees: Brokers earn money by setting a 'spread' – the difference between what a currency can be bought at and what it can be sold at.

How does the foreign currency exchange market work?

Currencies are always traded in pairs – the US dollar against the Japanese yen, or the English pound against the euro. Every transaction involves selling one currency and buying another, so if an investor believes the euro will gain against the dollar, he will sell dollars and buy euros.

The potential for profit exists because there is always movement between currencies. Even small changes can result in substantial profits because of the large amount of money involved in each transaction.

At the same time, it can be a relatively safe market for the individual investor. There are safeguards built in to protect both the broker and the investor and a number of software tools exist to minimize loss.

Original here

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Mutual Fund Alternatives – Big Gains, Low Risk and Even Better

You can enjoy it to. It offers the lot low risk and high returns 30% + per annum and offers a great mutual fund alternative.

Mutual funds offer high risk and low returns after inflation so if you want better returns and low risk then try this one.

Its overseas property investment, its cheaper and easier than most people think and the bonus is you not only get an appreciating asset, you can enjoy it to, by having your own home in paradise.

Consider this fact:

A property bought near the popular resort of Jaco in Costa Rica for $30,000 just 15 years ago is worth as much as $750,000 today!

The downside volatility was low, while these huge gains were made.

But it gets better!

This investment not only gives you an appreciating asset, it also gives you a valuable rental income if you want it and the chance to own and visit your own slice of paradise.

An a mutual fund alternative it is not expensive and the returns and benefits are stunning.

It’s easy to do

There are plenty of companies to advice you on the best locations. Its tax efficient to and the buying process is easy and for peace of mind you get the same rights as residents?

Will these gains continue?

The answer is yes, because beach front property is up to 70% cheaper in Costa Rica and it’s only a 3 hour direct flight from the southern USA.

More Americans and foreign investors are buying than ever before and investment continues to grow making this a trend in motion that will continue for many years.

A simple choice

Let’s face it, mutual funds on the whole consider they do well if they make 12% per annum and with drawdowns up to 30% common and losing periods that last for years it’s not a great investment in terms of risk reward.

Overseas property in Costa Rica is affordable and offers much more and is a great mutual fund alternative you can actually enjoy as well

If you want 30% annual gains with low risk and an investment you can enjoy check out this mutual fund alternative and you may be glad you did.

Original here

How to Interpret and Profit from Financial Statements

Financial statements are a useful tool for judging the health of a company, and for comparing it to its competitors. They show what the company owes and owns, the profits or loses it has made over a given period, and how their position has changed since their last statement. Generally if you can tell which direction a company is heading in, you can also forecast future stock prices with some accuracy.

Gaining a basic knowledge of financial statements, and applying this knowledge when choosing or assessing investments can help you pick tomorrow's winning stocks, while avoiding tomorrow's losers.
Of course, financial statement analysis will not always factor in significant news events, unexpected incidents, changes in management, and other factors which may influence share prices, but it provides a starting point from which to gauge the present value of shares, independent of future occurrences.

The following report details some simple financial statement explanation and analysis methods. Although the topic can get much deeper and more complex, this article is designed to give investors the ability to understand the numbers and simpler of financial ratios, and be able to use that knowledge to assist them to make better decisions when doing their due diligence.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a company's financial position at a specific date, usually the last day of the company's fiscal year for annual reports. One side of the balance sheet shows what the company owns and has owing to it, called assets. The other side represents liabilities, which are what the company owes, and also has shareholders' equity, which represents the excess of the company's assets over its liabilities. Shareholder's equity is often referred to as book value.
Total assets are equal to the sum of the company's liabilities plus the shareholders' equity. In other words, take away liabilities from assets and the remainder is what value is owned by the shareholders.
The Balance Sheet can be used to uncover the value of the company, the debt load, and cash position.

Earnings Statement

Also called the Income Statement or Profit and Loss Statement, it shows how much revenue a company received during the year from the sale of its products and services, and the expenses the company incurred due to wages, taxes, operating costs, etc... The difference between the two is the company's profit or loss for the year. The amount left over after taxes is the net earnings.

Net earnings are basically saying how much money the company ‘really' made over the course of the year. Some companies can have low earnings if they used much of their money for research and development, to acquire other companies, fuel aggressive growth, move into new markets, etc, which is much more favorable than if the company had low earnings because they didn't generate many revenues, their expenses were too high, etc...

Statements of Changes in Financial Position

This shows how the company's financial position changed from one year to the next. Also called the cash flow statement, this details how the company generated and spent its cash during the year.
This statement can be used in evaluating the liquidity and solvency of a company, and to assess the ability of that company to generate cash internally, to repay debts, to reinvest in itself, etc...

Sources of Financial Reports

Certainly you can get financials from the companies themselves. Most will gladly fax them to you, or mail you their latest quarterly and annual reports.

However, a faster way to access the information can be by Internet. For example, go to Yahoo.com and choose stock quotes. Enter the ticker symbol for the company you are interested in, and Yahoo will provide its most recent press releases, which will include past quarterly and annual reports with the financial statements. You can also check the previous reports to compare which direction the company is moving in and look for trends (i.e. increasing debt load, unpredictable earnings, decreasing revenues, erratic revenues, etc...).
There are also many other Internet resources which provide similar information, such as wsrn.com, bigcharts.com, (canada-stockwatch.com for Canadian issues), etc...

Comparison Shopping

To familiarize yourself with some of the numbers, try looking up the financials of three companies you own or are interested in.

(Balance Sheet) Which of the companies has the greatest long term debt load? Do any of the companies have greater current liabilities than current assets? Compare the current share price to the shareholder's equity (book value): is the share price much greater or less than the book value?

(Earnings Statement) What were the revenues of the most recent year (or quarter) and does the number represent an increase or decrease from the previous period? How much money per share did the company earn (or lose) in the most recent period?

(Statement of Changes in Financial Position) Has company debt been increasing or decreasing? What was the greatest expense the company incurred according to the statement?

Decision Making

Understand that financial statements can provide investors with a partial fundamental snapshot of a company. They only represent one piece of the puzzle. Remember that, while financial statements can help investors compare several companies, comparison is limited only to the numbers provided.

In other words, you can see that one company made money while the other lost money, but you don't know which has the better technical outlook (based on analysis of the trading chart), which is a potential takeover target, which will have the best future earnings, etc...

As well, the impact of financial statements tends to be long-term as it relates to share prices. Four quarterly reports showing increasing earnings may push the stock into an upward trend as the market begins to recognize the fundamental improvements of the underlying company, but one quarter of increasing earnings may or may not have a significant impact on shares.

Therefore, most investors use financial statements as part of a greater overall decision making process. Certainly, though, an understanding of and familiarization with the data can benefit any investor who takes the time to make educated trading decisions.

Important Points

Many growth companies don't need nor are expected to have positive earnings. Instead, they generally accumulate debt as they focus on research and development of new technologies, aggressively move into new markets, fight for market share with competitors, etc... Other companies with minimal growth prospects on the other hand, have more importance placed on actual earnings, lowering operational costs, etc...

Be sure to understand what numbers are important and unimportant to a specific company based on their situation and the position they are in. This can be done easily by going to wsrn.com and doing an industry comparison on the company in question. Do companies in the same industry seem to have positive earnings, or is the focus on growth, research, etc... Are they a larger or smaller company than the industry average, and are they growing faster than the others?
Read the fine print to make sure the numbers you are reading have been audited, rather than being just company estimates, or unverified results. This generally is not something you need to worry about with most exchange-listed companies, but it is important practice.

Many annual statements will begin with positive news about sales or revenue increases, or other positive comments, but further reading reveals that the company actually lost more money, increased debt, or had a poor quarter or year. For most companies their financial statements are part of their promotional material and they need to make the information sound as impressive and positive as possible, even if the overall results were disappointing.

Be wary of one-time earnings or loses. For example, a company may win a huge lawsuit settlement and the influx of money gives them positive earnings for the quarter. However, how would they have done when the one-time extraordinary is ignored? Learn more at http://www.pennystockinsider.com.

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Friday, November 16, 2007

Mutual Fund Alternatives - With Lower Risk and Higher Returns

Mutual funds as a group perform badly over the longer term.

Most cannot out perform the share index furthermore, a mutual fund is considered good if it reaches double digit gains.

If you take into account the effect of inflation on growth, mutual funds don’t look so attractive and the risk is high, with 30% or more in terms of drawdown and years to recovery in many instances.

So what are the alternatives?

There are plenty of mutual fund alternatives that not only offer higher returns, but lower risk and here we will look at one.

We all know that property is a good solid long term investment and it gets even better if it’s overseas investment property.

Overseas investment property is:

Cheap

Has high growth potential and low risk in many locations

can be very tax efficient

The country we will look at here is Costa Rica.

An example of the high growth potential can be made is illustrated by the following example.

A property purchased for just $30,000 near the popular holiday resort of Jaco 15 years ago, is worth $800,000 today.

The above gets even better when you consider these gains were steady and drawdowns were small and short lived.

But it gets better.

Overseas investment property can not only yield capital gains, it can also provide valuable extra rental income and act as a free holiday home – so you get to enjoy it to!

Will Costa Rica continue to provide great investment returns?

The answer is yes.

As more Americans want beach front property at affordable prices and in Costa Rica properties can cost up to 70% less than in the USA and Costa Rica is only a 2 hour flight away.

There are many expanding resorts where property can be bought cheaply with solid long term capital growth potential.

The buying process is easy.

Costa Rica encourages foreign investment and overseas buyers get the same rights as residents.

Investing in overseas property is also much easier than many people think.

You don’t need any specialist knowledge and there are many Realtors who specialize in helping foreign buyers acquire the right property in terms of:

Their budget and their expectations in terms of growth.

Many investors simply hope their mutual funds will deliver above average capital gains, but the odds are against them, despite what the sales literature says.

Of course, the risk is also high when investing in mutual funds and losing periods can and do, last years.

Costa Rica offers a great alternative to mutual funds and offers high returns, coupled with low risk.

If you are looking for solid longer term gains then an overseas property investment in a country such as Costa Rica is ideal.

Add in the potential for good rental income and a free holiday home and you have an investment you can actually enjoy as well, in one of the most beautiful countries on earth.

Consider the facts

Add all the above up and you have an investment that is well worth considering, from both a financial and a lifestyle point of view.

Over 100,000 Americans and other foreign investors have bought property in Costa Rica and maybe you should consider it to.

Original here

Pivot Points in Forex: Mapping your Time Frame

It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.

Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.

As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from “bull” to “bear” or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can’t break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.

Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.

Pivot Points

In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.

Why PP work?
They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.

Calculating pivot points
There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:

Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458

The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439

What does this number tell us?
It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.

Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT.

Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.

Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) – H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L
Support 2 (S2) = PP – (R1 – S1)
Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 – S1)

Where , H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period

Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439

S1 = (1.2439 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2404
R1 = (1.2439 * 2) – 1.2376 = 1.2502
R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537
S2 = 1.2439 – (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537

These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.

On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

S1, S2, R1 AND R2...? An Objective Alternative

As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.

We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today’s chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.

LOPS1, low of the previous session.
HOPS1, high of the previous session.
LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session.
HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session.
PP, pivot point.

These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.

The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don’t know the reason, and we don’t need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.

What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren’t just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.

Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.

How we use our mapping method?
We at StraightForex use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio (RR) of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.

Original here

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Forex Trading Systems: Mechanical vs. Discretionary Systems.

There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.

We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.

Mechanical systems

Advantages
This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn’t.
Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages
Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
A system that worked successfully the past year doesn’t necessary mean it will work this year.

Discretionary systems

Advantages
Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.

Disadvantages
They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.
It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.

Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won’t play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.

If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.

On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.

Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.

I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.

Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:

1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.

2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.

3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It’s not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.

4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)

Original here

Seek a lender to come out of debt

When you are clueless on how to pay back your loan with insufficient cash, worry no more. Many times due to high interest rates, repayment of loan becomes a tough job that results in continual harassment by the creditors. Refinance is the safest option to take you out of such a mess.

Six-seven years back the refinancing options were limited. Today, consumers dictate and the lenders queue up to meet their requirements. So why not take advantage of such a situation, where your needs are given the maximum importance.

Several loan lenders in the market compete amongst themselves to provide you with business. The rise in competition results in lowered rate of interests and we can choose the best option that suits our requirements. You can seek quick information on the current market interest rates from other reliable sources. The borrower benefits from this rat race, as they are the choosers. Remember, a penny saved is a penny earned.

By applying online for a refinance, you are connected to several lenders. Lenders have sites that provide useful information. Your profile is matched with that of the lenders and accordingly the most competitive quotes are provided. You no more have to take the pains of visiting the lender; rather they get back to you after receiving your application.

You save more with the same income. This can be possible by cutting down the monthly payment of high interests. When you apply for refinancing your mortgage loan, you are provided with quotes from up to four lenders. You can compare the different rates with the help of Refinance Calculators and choose the best deal

You can borrow more than the unpaid loan balance if you have enough home equity. You can utilize that extra cash in meeting your other expenses, be it paying off your other debts or meeting personal expenses. If you want, you can also reduce the period of you payment, which helps you come out of debt faster as well as build equity faster in your home.

Mortgage lenders not only provide you with refinance options but also guide you on what is best for you. If your lender is reputable, he is sure to clear all your doubts.

Original here